R ARIVANANTHAM
CHENNAI, AUG 31
The first serious crack in Tamil Nadu’s post-2026 ruling alliance may not be over a State policy, portfolio or power-sharing formula—it may be over who should occupy the Prime Minister’s chair in 2029.
- Congress draws a red line on Rahul Gandhi as TVK voices pitch Vijay for PM
- Rajesh Kumar’s Cabinet-exit warning turns a simmering disagreement into an open alliance test
- Vijay’s rapid rise from Tamil superstar to Tamil Nadu CM fuels talk of a larger national role
- Congress counters the PM pitch with the hard arithmetic of 272 Lok Sabha seats
- Vaiko’s backing for Rahul Gandhi adds another layer to the unfolding coalition drama
- With 2029 still three years away, Tamil Nadu’s ruling alliance is already battling over who gets to shape the national narrative
What began as enthusiastic statements from sections of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) projecting Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay as a potential national leader has now developed into an open political confrontation with alliance partner Congress, with Tourism Minister S Rajesh Kumar warning that the two Congress ministers in the Vijay Cabinet would quit if TVK refuses to endorse Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate for the 2029 Lok Sabha election.
Rajesh Kumar’s declaration is significant because it converts what could have been dismissed as TVK cadres’ premature national ambition into a test of alliance discipline.
At a Congress event in Kanniyakumari on Sunday, Kumar said Rahul Gandhi would be the Congress candidate for the Prime Minister’s post and that the two Congress ministers would leave the State government if TVK did not accept that position. He also made clear that, for Congress, the party takes precedence over ministerial office.
The warning comes barely three months after Congress joined the Vijay-led government—the first time in 59 years that the party has been part of a Tamil Nadu government after losing power in the State in 1967. Congress had backed TVK after the latter emerged as the largest party but fell short of a majority, and Rajesh Kumar and P Viswanathan were subsequently inducted into the Cabinet.
The irony is unmistakable: the alliance that was forged to govern Tamil Nadu is already being tested by ambitions that extend beyond Tamil Nadu.
Vijay-for-PM campaign gathers momentum
The Congress ultimatum did not emerge in isolation.
For weeks, senior TVK leaders and ministers have been openly speaking about Vijay’s suitability for a larger national role. Human Resources Management Minister Sarathkumar went as far as declaring in the Assembly that Vijay would be the next Prime Minister. Other TVK voices have argued that the next Prime Minister should emerge from the South.
The campaign gained further visibility when TVK leaders began presenting Vijay not merely as a successful Chief Minister but as a leader with the potential to expand the party’s influence beyond Tamil Nadu.
That is politically significant.
TVK entered electoral politics only in 2024 and captured power in the 2026 Assembly election. Yet, barely 100 days into the Vijay government, some of its leaders are already discussing New Delhi and 2029. That indicates that TVK does not necessarily see its 2026 victory merely as a State-level breakthrough; sections within the party appear to regard it as the launch pad for a national political project.
But there is an important distinction between a party’s ambition and an alliance’s agreed political position.
That distinction is now at the heart of the Congress-TVK confrontation.
Congress: ambition is not arithmetic
Congress has repeatedly sought to puncture the Vijay-for-PM narrative by bringing the discussion back to parliamentary numbers.
Congress MP Karti Chidambaram said that becoming Prime Minister requires the support of 272 Lok Sabha MPs, effectively arguing that popularity, political enthusiasm or a strong regional base cannot by themselves determine who occupies the top constitutional office.
That argument could become one of Congress’s principal weapons against the TVK campaign.
For Vijay, the political challenge is therefore not merely to establish himself as a popular Tamil leader. He would have to demonstrate that TVK can translate its Tamil Nadu strength into substantial Lok Sabha representation and, crucially, build a coalition acceptable outside the State.
The arithmetic makes the question considerably more complicated than the rhetoric.
But the numbers have given Vijay’s national ambition a new talking point
There is, however, one development that Congress cannot entirely brush aside.
The latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey placed Vijay third among preferences for Prime Minister, behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi.
The reported figures put Modi at 49 per cent, Rahul Gandhi at 27 per cent and Vijay at 9 per cent.
Nine per cent is nowhere near a mandate for the Prime Minister’s office.
But politically, the significance lies elsewhere.
Vijay has entered a national PM-preference conversation barely months after becoming Chief Minister.
For a relatively new regional political force, that gives TVK supporters something more tangible than slogans. It allows them to argue that Vijay’s appeal is no longer confined to his film-star image or Tamil Nadu politics.
Congress, meanwhile, can counter that a survey ranking is not an electoral mandate and that the Prime Minister is ultimately determined by parliamentary strength.
Both arguments can coexist—and that is precisely what makes the emerging contest politically interesting.
Vaiko throws weight behind Rahul—and sends message to Vijay
The latest intervention from MDMK chief Vaiko could make the situation even more uncomfortable for TVK.
Vaiko, an ally of Vijay, has backed Rahul Gandhi as the INDIA bloc’s Prime Ministerial choice and said there was no reason for TVK ministers to publicly project Vijay for the post. He went further, saying Vijay himself did not appear to harbour such an ambition and that the Chief Minister should advise his ministers to stop making such statements.
That intervention is politically more consequential than a routine opposition criticism.
It suggests that the discomfort over the Vijay-for-PM campaign is not restricted to Congress.
If alliance partners begin publicly defending Rahul Gandhi while TVK ministers continue projecting Vijay, the controversy could evolve from a Congress-TVK disagreement into a broader question about who actually speaks for the ruling coalition on national political strategy.
From ‘fan-club politics’ to Cabinet ultimatum
Tamil Nadu Congress chief B Manickam Tagore had earlier dismissed the Vijay-for-PM campaign as TVK leaders being in “fan club mode”, while suggesting that Vijay himself would make his political position clear when the 2029 Lok Sabha election approached.
Karti Chidambaram similarly argued that parliamentary numbers, rather than political aspirations, would determine the Prime Minister.
The tone has now changed dramatically.
What Congress initially treated as enthusiastic talk has acquired the seriousness of a Cabinet ultimatum.
That escalation raises an obvious political question: Did Congress move too quickly by entering a TVK-led government without first settling the larger alliance’s national leadership question?
Or is the current warning intended precisely to prevent TVK from allowing the Vijay-for-PM campaign to become an official party line?
Either way, the Congress leadership has now placed itself on record.
The larger political game
The immediate controversy is about Rahul Gandhi versus Vijay.
The deeper contest is about who controls the narrative of the 2029 Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu.
For Congress, Rahul Gandhi’s projection serves two purposes: it protects the party’s claim to national leadership within the INDIA bloc and prevents a powerful regional ally from converting its State mandate into a rival national leadership claim.
For TVK, Vijay’s projection could serve an entirely different purpose. It can help the party establish a national identity, energise its cadre and transform the Chief Minister from a successful State leader into a potential South Indian alternative in national politics.
The risk for TVK is equally obvious.
A premature PM campaign can create friction with the very allies whose support may eventually be necessary for a national expansion.
The risk for Congress is no less real.
By making Rahul Gandhi’s candidature an alliance test three years before the Lok Sabha election, the party could be seen as demanding a commitment before the electoral landscape has even taken shape.
And there is another uncomfortable question.
If TVK ultimately emerges as the dominant political force in Tamil Nadu, will Congress be willing to remain a junior partner if its national leadership claim conflicts with the aspirations of the State’s ruling party?
That question may prove more important than the present exchange of statements.
The real battle may not be Rahul vs Vijay
At this stage, neither Rahul Gandhi nor Vijay can claim an established 2029 mandate.
The present contest is therefore less a conventional Prime Ministerial race and more a battle for political positioning.
Congress is trying to establish Rahul Gandhi as the unavoidable national face of its alliance.
TVK is testing whether Vijay can be transformed from a Tamil Nadu phenomenon into a national political proposition.
Vaiko is urging restraint.
The DMK, meanwhile, has seized on the controversy to question both TVK’s national ambitions and Congress’s position on Rahul Gandhi.
And the survey numbers have ensured that the Vijay question cannot simply be laughed away.
The crucial test, therefore, is not who is calling whom the next Prime Minister in 2026. It is whether TVK can convert Vijay’s personal popularity into a durable political organisation, a credible national coalition and sufficient parliamentary numbers by 2029.
Until then, Congress has one formidable weapon—272.
TVK has another—Vijay’s rapidly expanding political brand.
Between those two numbers and narratives lies the road to 2029.
And Rajesh Kumar’s Cabinet ultimatum has made one thing clear: the battle for the 2029 Prime Ministerial narrative has already entered Tamil Nadu’s Cabinet.
