R ARIVANANTHAM
CHENNAI, DEC 11
In a charged political atmosphere ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) on Wednesday declared that the AIADMK-led alliance with the BJP will win 210 seats, setting the tone for an aggressive comeback campaign.
Addressing the party’s General Council in Chennai, EPS asserted: “The AIADMK-led alliance will win 210 seats. You all should extend your cooperation for us to emerge victorious in next year’s polls.”
- EPS asserts AIADMK–BJP alliance will storm back to Fort St George in 2026
- OPS–Dhinakaran–Sasikala equation remains the X-factor as BJP eyes a unified Dravidian vote-bank
- DMK ramps up welfare as anti-incumbency shadows governance narrative
- State BJP leaders hail momentum, call EPS projection “realistic with Amit Shah’s roadmap”
- TVK’s expanding youth base complicates the 2026 electoral calculus for both Dravidian majors
BJP’s ‘Chanakya Plan’ and the Dravidian Realignment
Sources within the state BJP say Union Home Minister Amit Shah has quietly activated what party insiders describe as a “Chanakya plan for Tamil Nadu” — a multi-layered strategy to consolidate anti-DMK votes, bridge fissures in the AIADMK ecosystem, and contain the surprise ascent of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by Vijay.
This includes back-channel outreach to O. Panneerselvam (OPS), T.T.V. Dhinakaran, and V.K. Sasikala, who remain influential in pockets of southern, delta and northern Tamil Nadu. While EPS remains firm on rejecting their return, the BJP is assessing whether unifying splinter factions can add 3–5% vote share in a tight race.
A senior BJP strategist said, “Fragmentation helps only the DMK. A broader consolidation around NDA is essential, and discussions are at various stages.”
EPS Targets DMK on Governance, Projects Confidence
EPS launched a direct attack on the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, claiming public disenchantment:
He said the DMK, which repeatedly criticises AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP, “couldn’t say anything about the ‘golden rule’ of the AIADMK regime.”
Accusing DMK of reactive welfare measures, he said: “Why should you give the free laptops now? Colleges had reopened five months ago. As you lost the popularity among the public and fearing that you might lose next year’s poll, you announced that free laptops will be given to 10 lakh students.”
He further reiterated that AIADMK lost the 2021 election narrowly:
“We lost by a small margin in 43 seats.”
DMK’s Anti-Incumbency Management Plan
With four years of governance behind it, the DMK is reportedly working on a “Deep Incumbency Management Strategy” involving district-wise evaluations, micro-targeted welfare reinforcement, expansion of Kalaignar family benefit schemes, and a narrative reset around the “Dravidian development model.”
Political analysts say DMK is conscious of:
- The rising urban discontent on price issues,
- Rural fatigue with stalled projects, and
- TVK’s traction with first-time voters.
The free laptop announcement, insiders claim, is part of a broader youth-courting programme designed to counter both AIADMK and TVK.
The TVK Wild Card
Vijay’s TVK — buoyed by massive social media presence and high youth enthusiasm — is now considered the third pole capable of splitting the anti-DMK vote or anti-AIADMK vote depending on seat-specific dynamics.
Survey agencies project a 6–12% vote share potential, especially in cities and western belts.
This complicates calculations for both Dravidian majors — and is a key reason the BJP is keen on minimising factional Dravidian fragmentation.
State BJP Reactions: “210 Seats Possible with United NDA”
Top BJP leaders in Tamil Nadu welcomed EPS’s projection:
K. Annamalai (State BJP President) said privately to reporters:
“EPS has set an ambitious goal. With Amit Shahji’s strategic framework and unified ground mobilisation, the number is not unrealistic.”
- A senior BJP vice-president added:
“OPS, Dhinakaran and Sasikala are political forces whether EPS admits it or not. A united formation helps the NDA. Talks are progressing in the right direction.”
- Another BJP functionary noted,
“TVK is a new factor, yes, but it also splits the anti-BJP or anti-AIADMK sentiment in pockets. Our calculations incorporate that.”
The Road to 2026: High Stakes, Higher Uncertainty
As Tamil Nadu enters an intense pre-election year, the political landscape appears more fluid than ever:
- AIADMK seeks consolidation under EPS
- BJP pushes for a mega realignment
- Splinter groups weigh options
- TVK surges with youth power
- DMK braces for anti-incumbency while strengthening welfare delivery
With multiple chessboards in play — and Amit Shah’s Chanakya-style political engineering at work — the race to Fort St George has never looked more unpredictable or more dramatic.
