- India’s equity momentum to strengthen despite volatility
- Gold, silver and base metals to remain key safe-haven bets
- Young investor participation to deepen market penetration
- BFSI, technology, healthcare, hospitality flagged as top sectors
- Nifty seen hitting 29,120 by Dec 2026; bull target at 32,032
NE BUSINESS BUREAU
MUMBAI, DEC 12
Kotak Securities Ltd (“Kotak Neo”) on Thursday released its Market Outlook 2026, projecting sustained optimism for Indian equities and commodities even as global markets navigate heightened uncertainty. The report underscores macro resilience, sectoral opportunities and commodity cues that investors should watch in the coming year.
Shripal Shah, MD & CEO, Kotak Securities, said, “India remains a beacon of growth amid global turbulence. Our outlook for equities is upbeat, driven by robust earnings projections and policy support while gold is expected to retain its shine as a safe-haven asset in 2026. With rising participation from young investors, the market is set for deeper engagement and wealth creation.”
Highlighting the untapped scale of Indian retail investing, he added, “As per the latest SEBI survey findings, only 9.5% of households actively invest despite 63% being aware of at least one securities market product. This means India’s equity market holds immense untapped potential. Brokerage firms must lead the charge to make investing inclusive and accessible.”
Equity Markets: Primed for the Next Growth Wave
The Market Outlook 2026 report maps the key trends shaping the equity landscape:
• Indian equities saw a 17% drawdown from September 2024 highs but the Nifty 50 rebounded to a new all-time high by end-CY25.
• Large-caps steered the recovery while mid-caps and small-caps lagged.
• Automobiles, banks and metals emerged as outperformers, with IT and FMCG showing weakness.
• Domestic investor inflows offset persistent FPI outflows, reinforcing confidence in India’s equity story.
• A robust primary market pipeline reflects sustained optimism across categories.
Nifty Outlook: Base Case 29,120 by December 2026
Kotak Securities notes a strong earnings trajectory with Nifty profits expected to grow 17.6% in FY27E and 14.8% in FY28E.
- Base case: Nifty at 29,120 (PE 20.0x on FY28E EPS of ₹1,456)
- Bull case: 32,032 (PE 22.0x)
- Bear case: 26,208 (PE 18.0x)
Preferred sectors for CY26: BFSI, Technology, Healthcare, Hospitality
Commodities: Gold to Sparkle, Silver to Outperform
- Gold surged over 55% in 2025, crossing $4,000/oz amid global macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and aggressive central bank buying.
• Indian gold prices climbed 60%, aided by rupee depreciation.
• Silver delivered 100% returns, supported by safe-haven demand and supply deficits despite industrial headwinds from tariffs.
• Crude oil slipped 19% as surplus supply outweighed geopolitical shocks, signalling a cautious 2026 outlook.
• Copper and aluminium remain firm, driven by structural tightness, electrification-led demand and constrained supply—even as volatility stays elevated.
