NE NEWS SERVICE
NEW DELHI, APRL 11
The number of coronavirus cases in the country could have increased to 8.2 lakh by April 15 had India not implemented a lockdown and other containment measures, the Union Health Ministry said on Saturday.
Addressing a daily briefing on the coronavirus situation of the country, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry Lav Agarwal said early preemptive action has been taken to identify COVID-19 hotspots, along with the implementation of other containment measures.
“According to a statistical analysis by us, India would have registered a 41 percent cumulative rise in the number of cases, taking the total to 2.08 lakh on April 11 and 8.2 lakh by April 15 had there been no lockdown or other containment measures,” the officer said.
With containment measures but no lockdown, the number of cases could have risen to 1.2 lakh till April 15 and to 45,370 on April 11 at 28.9 per cent growth rate, he said.
On Friday, when asked about an ‘ICMR report’ that stated India would have had up to 8.2 lakh COVID-19 positive cases by April 15 had it not been for the 21-day nationwide lockdown, Agarwal had said there was no such report.
The question on the purported ‘ICMR report’ was asked on Friday after MEA’s Secretary (West) Vikas Swarup, while briefing foreign media, had reportedly said that without the lockdown, there could have been 8,20,000 cases by 15 April.
He had cited an Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) study for the figure of 8.2 lakh.
Agarwal on Saturday clarified that there was no such ICMR report which gave the 8.2 lakh figure, but a “statistical analysis by us”.
Stressing on the importance of social distancing, lockdown and other efforts in the battle against coronavirus, Agarwal said, “Since we started promoting social distancing and implemented lockdown from March 25 along with other containment measures, there has been a decrease in cases and we have 7,447 coronavirus cases till date.”
Red, orange, green zones may come up during extended lockdown
The Centre is likely to categorise the country into red, orange and green zones depending on the number of COVID-19 cases during the proposed extended period of lockdown and might allow limited services to function in the safe zones.
Officials privy to the discussions during the four-hour-long conference with chief ministers, convened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, said that schools and colleges would remain shut but some small scale industries and liquor shops may be allowed to function.
There was near unanimity in extending the ongoing 21-day lockdown, which is till April 30, and the central government is likely to categorise the country into three zones – red, orange and green – depending on the number of COVID-19 cases, an official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.
There will be no activity in the red zones – the districts where the sizeable number of cases were detected or areas which were declared hotspots. In the orange zones – where only a few cases were found in the past with no increase in the number of positive cases — minimum activities like opening of limited public transport, harvesting of farm products will be allowed.
Green zones will be in the districts where there is no COVID-19 case. The chief ministers were against large scale inter-state movement of people, sources said. Liquor shops are likely to be allowed to open as many chief ministers strongly pitched for it arguing that it is a major revenue-generating way for the states, the sources said, adding restaurants and malls won’t open.
However, some MSME industries falling under the green zone – in the districts where there is no COVID-19 case – will be allowed to function with in-house lodging facilities for employees with proper maintenance of social distance. Agricultural activities are also set to be allowed in green and orange zones with strict maintenance of social distance.
Limited domestic air and train services may be allowed in select sectors with 30 percent or fewer passengers while limited metro services may also be started in cities like Delhi with 30 percent passengers. Currently, in major cities like Delhi, 30 percent of DTC and cluster bus services are operational for those working in essential services.
The city public transport services will be enhanced from minimum to optimal, another source said. The chief ministers are strongly opposed to any mass scale movements of people between states saying they can’t put thousands of people in quarantine together, the sources said. After the marathon meeting, the prime minister is believed to have directed top officials to work out on the guidelines – on the restrictions and exemptions – which may be announced either on Sunday or Monday.
