NE POLITICAL BUREAU
CHENNAI, MAR 10
A large-scale booth-level political survey conducted by Parawheel, a tech-driven political intelligence and election forecasting firm powered by KK Surveys & Strategies Pvt Ltd, suggests that Tamil Nadu’s political arena may be heading towards a three-cornered contest, with the Dravidian majors retaining dominance but a new entrant steadily gaining ground.
Based on preliminary findings from an ongoing survey covering more than 70.2 lakh voters across all 234 Assembly constituencies, the study projects the DMK with a 41.5 per cent vote share, followed by AIADMK at 36.2 per cent, while TVK is predicted to emerge as the third major political force with 13.6 per cent. The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) is estimated to secure 7.9 per cent vote share in the current electoral scenario.
- Massive booth-level opinion survey covers over 70.2 lakh voters across all 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu
- Early projections place DMK at 41.5%, AIADMK at 36.2%, and TVK at 13.6% vote share, reshaping the political landscape
- NTK estimated at 7.9%, while TVK reportedly gains traction among youth and first-time voters
- Chennai survey trends indicate TVK emerging as the second-strongest force after DMK in several urban constituencies
- Parawheel introduces “One Candidate – One War Room” model offering real-time voter analytics and campaign intelligence
Parawheel, which specialises in voter behaviour analysis, booth-level field research, and data-driven political intelligence, conducted the survey with a minimum sample size of around 30,000 respondents per constituency, making it one of the largest opinion research exercises undertaken in the state.
Chennai Trends Highlight TVK Surge
In Chennai, the survey indicates that TVK is emerging as a significant challenger in several constituencies, ranking as the second strongest political force after the DMK in many urban pockets. While the DMK continues to maintain its lead across most segments of the capital city, Parawheel’s data suggests that TVK has gained notable traction among young voters and first-time voters, positioning it ahead of several other parties in key urban constituencies.
Focus on Voter Behaviour and Swing Segments
Speaking at a press conference, Kiran Kondetti, CEO of Parawheel, said the research was designed to capture complex voter sentiment patterns across diverse regions of the state.
“Our research is focussed on voter sentiment studies across key regions including Chennai, Coimbatore, the Delta districts, and Southern, Northern and Western Tamil Nadu, along with detailed analysis of caste coalitions, governance perception and anti-incumbency trends. Our study examines the role of first-time voters, women voters and swing constituencies in shaping electoral outcomes,” he said.
Kondetti added that the survey also studied the ‘TVK–Vijay factor’, examining how fan bases could potentially translate into electoral support.
“A special area of analysis was done for the TVK–Vijay factor, studying the transition of fan bases into voters, youth mobilisation and its potential impact on the vote share of major parties such as DMK and AIADMK,” he noted.
‘One Candidate – One War Room’ Strategy
Parawheel also announced a campaign intelligence initiative aimed at candidates contesting the elections.
“We have extended the war room model that is traditionally limited to party headquarters to individual candidates through our ‘One Candidate – One War Room’ initiative. Under this model, we will provide dedicated campaign war rooms across all 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu,” Kondetti said.
According to him, the system will deliver real-time voter data, booth analytics, and campaign strategy support to candidates during the election period.
“As part of our constituency-level political intelligence services, Parawheel can provide candidates with a database of a minimum of 5,000 neutral voters in each constituency. This will help candidates better understand swing voter segments and design targeted outreach strategies during election campaigns,” he added.
Confidence in Scientific Methodology
The company has also expressed strong confidence in the accuracy of its research findings.
“At Parawheel, we have strong confidence in the credibility and accuracy of our research and data. If the projections or data provided to candidates are found to be inaccurate, or if there is a variation of more than one per cent in the projections or data shared, the full amount paid by candidates who purchase the data will be refunded,” Kondetti said.
Track Record in Election Forecasting
Parawheel claims a strong record in political forecasting across states. The organisation says it accurately forecast electoral trends in the 2019 Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections, and in the 2024 Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections predicted the sweeping victory of the TDP–Jana Sena–BJP alliance when several national pollsters failed to capture the trend.
The firm also states that it provided accurate political trend analysis ahead of the final results in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, strengthening its reputation in election research and forecasting.
