NE SCIENCE & TECH BUREAU
CHENNAI, APR 9
A landmark study by Indian Institute of Technology Madras has delivered a stark reality check on the global energy transition, warning that renewable energy may not overtake fossil fuels until the mid-2050s under current trends.
The research underscores that only under highly aggressive scenarios—requiring an immediate doubling of global investments—can renewables dominate the energy mix by the late 2040s, challenging prevailing optimism around net-zero timelines.
- Fossil fuels to dominate till 2050s unless investments double now
- Late-2040s renewable dominance possible only under aggressive push
- 73% surge in grid & storage spending crucial for COP28 goals
- Renewables at just 14.56%, fossil fuels still power 81% of world
- India’s dual challenge: Growth needs vs 485 GW green target
Ambition vs Action — A Widening Gap
Published in the Indian National Academy of Engineering journal, the study highlights a growing disconnect between climate commitments and actual progress.
Despite a 128% rise in renewable capacity over the past decade, renewables account for just 14.56% of global primary energy consumption, while fossil fuels continue to supply over 81% of energy demand.
Investment Deficit Threatens Climate Goals
The study stresses that achieving global targets, including those set at COP28, will require a massive 73% increase in investments in power grids and energy storage.
Without this, the transition risks bottlenecks in integrating renewable energy into existing systems.
Experts Speak — Transition Needs Scale & Speed
Co-author Jitendra S. Sangwai noted: “The transition is an economic and geopolitical imperative… while technological pathways exist, the world is not yet investing at the necessary scale.”
The research, co-authored with doctoral scholar Rajat Dehury, emphasises that the pace of action must match the urgency of climate goals.
India’s Tightrope Walk
The analysis places India at the centre of the transition challenge—balancing rapid economic growth with ambitious sustainability targets.
India aims to achieve 485 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, even as it continues to depend on conventional energy to meet rising demand.
Beyond Renewables — A Multi-Tech Future
The researchers argue that renewables alone cannot deliver net-zero in the near term.
They advocate a diversified strategy including:
- Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS)
- Advanced storage solutions like green hydrogen
- Smart grid modernisation
The study warns that fossil fuels will remain relevant for two to three more decades, especially in developing economies.
With the clock ticking on climate commitments, the message from IIT Madras is clear: without urgent investment, policy acceleration, and technological integration, the world risks falling short of every major climate milestone.
